Oscar handicapping

Best Actor
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
>>The kind of lifetime achievement award Oscar loves to bestow. Bridges has already been sweeping other award shows. Consider this a lock.
George Clooney, Up in the Air
>>Already won one for Syriana a couple of years ago. He probably won’t get another until he provides a showstopper performance that’s impossible to ignore.
Colin Firth, A Single Man
>>Should be happy to be here since no one saw his movie.
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
>>Ditto.
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
>>A good performance, but the star of that movie is really the directing.

Best Actress
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
>>We’ll have to see the movie to offer an informed opinion on the groundswell of support for Bullock. As of now, we remain dubious. Oscar loves rewarding movie stars, but we can’t believe that this is Bullock's Erin Brockovich. From the outside, it looks like a Lifetime movie, too small, too fluffy.
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
>>She rather recently won for The Queen. It seems doubtful she’ll ever win again. Oscar loves to spread the wealth.
Carey Mulligan, An Education
>>No way. Oscar gives Best Actress awards to name actors, not ingénues.
Gabourney Sidibe, Precious
>>Ditto.
Meryl Streep, Julie and Julia
>>The Oscar love affair with Streep has become something of a joke to the Cheese Fry. She’s amazing, yes. But this is getting silly. Streep racks up nomination after nomination but hasn’t won in over 25 years. It’s practically an automatic nomination, like Kelsey Grammer at the Emmys in the 1990s. We think her problem is that she won two Oscars very early in her career (Kramer vs. Kramer and Sophie's Choice) and now the Academy isn’t sure what to do with her. We think they’re waiting for a huge, career-defining performance to give her a third Oscar (to join the rarefied ranks of three-peats Ingrid Bergman and Jack Nicholson). This ain’t it.

Best Supporting Actor
Matt Damon, Invictus
>>No one saw the movie.
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
>>Ditto.
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
>>Double ditto.
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
>>He was good and it’s his first nomination, so it could be a make-good on past slights, but…
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
>>..everyone seems to agree that he’s the best thing in the movie. A lock.

Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz, Nine
>>No way. No one saw it.
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
>>Very strong, but may split votes with her co-star. If Oscar wants to follow tradition and use this award to anoint a glamorous newcomer (see also: Marisa Tomei, Mira Sorvino, Jennifer Hudson, Penelope Cruz, Renee Zellweger), this is the best chance to do so.
Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart
>>We think the Bridges win will be all that Oscar chooses to offer for that movie.
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
>>See above, though we give the glamour nod to the more seasoned Farmiga.
Mo’Nique, Precious
>>She’s riding a wave of buzz and liberal Hollywood likely can’t pass up a chance to congratulate themselves on being color blind and supporting such an Important Film. Very close to a lock.

Director
Avatar
>>As groundbreaking as the film may be, Hollywood considers Jim Cameron a jackass. A win here would be a surprise.
The Hurt Locker
>>Oscar likely can’t pass up the chance to bestow its first directing award to a woman. Bonus points because Kathryn Bigelow actually, like, deserves it.
Inglourious Basterds
>>We honestly can’t ever imagine Tarantino winning this category. Flashforward to 2040 when he wins a lifetime achievement Oscar. That's what seems more likely.
Precious
>>No way. An honor to be here.
Up in the Air
>>Ditto, though Jason Reitman has an incredible track record (Thank You for Smoking, Juno). He’ll be back. His films so far have gotten exponentially better each time.

Best Original Screenplay
The Hurt Locker
>>The directing award may be enough, though this one is deserving. It's the odds-on-favorite since it's also in the running for the Writers Guild award, always a strong indicator of who wins the Oscar. Only this and A Serious Man were also nominated for the WGA award.
Inglourious Basterds
>>The supporting actor award may be enough, though this one is deserving.
The Messenger
>>No one’s seen it.
A Serious Man
>>Ditto.
Up
>>This is intriguing. Could this be a way to honor Pixar? If so, it’d leave a bad taste in our mouths. Up isn’t nearly as well-written as The Incredibles or Ratatouille.

Best Adapted Screenplay
District 9
>>We’d love a world where Oscar rewards science fiction, but we can’t see it.
An Education
>>No one saw this movie.
In the Loop
>>Ditto.
Precious
>>It would seem to be a run-off between Precious and Up in the Air. Both are the only ones from this list also nominated for a WGA award.
Up in the Air
>>We loved this script and hope it wins.

Best Picture
>>For the record, consider us among those who hate this new format that allows ten nominees rather than five. It's clearly a decision based solely on Oscar’s craven need to pander to the TV audiences and do everything it can to get in “popular” movies as possible – history tells us that in the years that populist movies win Best Picture (Titanic in 1998, Lord of the Rings in 2004), the TV ratings go up. The real problem, perhaps, is the disconnect between high-minded, slightly snobby Oscar voters and the moviegoing masses who can actually enjoy a big popcorn spectacle without feeling guilty in the morning (see: The Dark Knight or Star Trek).
Avatar
>>The likely winner, if only because the Academy may want to avoid repeating past mistakes that embarrassingly gave the win to the lesser of two frontrunners, like Gandhi over ET or Shakespeare in Love over Saving Private Ryan. Avatar changed filmmaking and has broken all box office records. That may be tough to ignore.
The Blind Side
>>No way, people.
District 9
>>Science fiction doesn’t win... unless it changes filmmaking and breaks all box office records.
An Education
>>We didn’t see it, either.
The Hurt Locker
>>The supposed other frontrunner is peaking at just the right time in terms of buzz and popularity, but we’re figuring the Bigelow win for director will be all that Oscar allows. Without Avatar, would have been a probable lock.
Inglorious Basterds
>>In the old days, this would have been the classic “fifth slot” surprise, the unexpected nomination that fills out the list. The nomination is reward enough.
Precious
>>Worthy, respectable, deserved. Won’t win.
A Serious Man
>>The esoteric, British-themed, stoic drama. There’s one every year. Won’t win.
Up
>>Kudos to Pixar for getting its first Best Picture nomination. Only the second animated film to ever get nominated. Won’t win.
Up in the Air
>>The kind of finely-crafted, smart drama that Oscar loves, though it’s been suffering a strange sort of backlash (“It’s not that great”) at the wrong time. This is the dark horse.

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