Back on May 23, the Cheese Fry took a look at some of this summer’s high-profile movies and predicted the box office gross for each. How did we do? Take a look:
Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the SithCheese Fry prediction from May 23: $360 million
Actual U.S. box office gross as of October 10: $380.2 million
Differential: +$20.2 million
War of the WorldsPrediction: $212 million
Gross: $233.5 million
Differential: +21.5 million
Cinderella ManPrediction: $115 million
Gross: $61.6 million
Differential: -$53.4 million
Just about everyone thinks it would have done better as a fall release.
The Wedding Crashers
Prediction: $103 million
Gross: $207 million
Differential: +$104 million
Big is one thing, but this was huge.
Prediction: $73 million
Gross: $205.1 million
Differential: +$132.1 million
Never underestimate the power of a truly good popcorn movie.
Prediction: $28 million
Gross: $25.4 million
Differential: -$2.6 million
This – along with The Fog’s recent flop open – suggests the horror cycle is dead. For now anyway.
Prediction: $32 million
Gross: $31.7 million
Differential: -$0.3 million
Never underestimate the awareness of audiences who can usually tell when a movie sucks.
Mr. and Mrs. SmithPrediction: $59 million
Gross: $185.9 million
Differential: +$126.9 million
How much of this was driven by the tabloid stories of Brangelina?
Prediction: $32 million
Gross: $154.2 million
Differential: +$122.2 million
As a corollary to the “never underestimate the awareness of audiences who can usually tell when a movie sucks,” keep in mind that huge advertising dollars can sometimes create just enough buzz to overcome a mediocre movie.
The Pink Panther
Prediction: $29 million
Gross: N/A – release date moved, which isn’t a good sign
The Sisterhood of Traveling Pants
Prediction: $88 million
Gross: $39 million
Differential: -$49 million
Herbie Fully Loaded
Prediction: $75 million
Gross: $66 million
Differential: -$9 million
Charlie and the Chocolate FactoryPrediction: $52 million
Gross: $204.9 million
Differential: +$152.9 million
DominoPrediction: $60 million
Gross: N/A – release date moved, but it opened with a huge flop
The Dukes of Hazzard
Prediction: $63 million
Differential: +$17.1 million
* Most accurate prediction: the flop Stealth
* Least accurate prediction: the hit Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
* Total differential: +$285.8 million (or an average of +$23.8 million per movie)